The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #5Miami | 1–0 | 2–0 | 8.2–0.8 | 90% | 69% | 81% |
 #16SMU | 1–0 | 2–0 | 7.5–1.5 | 46% | 14% | 21% |
 #25Virginia | 1–0 | 2–0 | 6.4–2.6 | 15% | 4% | 6% |
 California | 1–0 | 1–1 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 NC State | 0–1 | 1–1 | 4.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida State | 0–1 | 1–1 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 0–1 | 1–1 | 2.0–7.0 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Syracuse | 0–1 | 1–1 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #23Louisville | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.3–2.7 | 21% | 5% | 9% |
 Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.1–2.9 | 16% | 5% | 6% |
 Duke | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 5% | 1% | 2% |
 Clemson | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Wake Forest | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 0–2 | 3.9–4.1 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–0 | 2–0 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.