The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
15 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #6Miami | 2–0 | 3–0 | 8.2–0.8 | 89% | 67% | 78% |
 #16Louisville | 1–0 | 2–1 | 7.0–2.0 | 39% | 12% | 17% |
 Pittsburgh | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 18% | 6% | 7% |
 Duke | 1–0 | 3–0 | 5.8–3.2 | 12% | 4% | 4% |
 Virginia | 1–0 | 2–1 | 6.0–3.0 | 10% | 2% | 3% |
 Clemson | 1–0 | 2–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 California | 1–0 | 2–1 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #22SMU | 1–1 | 2–1 | 6.9–2.1 | 25% | 8% | 12% |
 NC State | 0–1 | 1–2 | 4.6–4.4 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida State | 0–1 | 1–2 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wake Forest | 0–1 | 2–1 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–1 | 2–1 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 0–2 | 1–2 | 1.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Syracuse | 0–2 | 1–2 | 1.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.7–4.3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.