SMU Mustangs
0–0 · 0–0 ACC
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
44%
ACC title game
21%
Win the ACC
23%
Make the playoff
2%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.8
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Missouri State.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves SMU's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Missouri State at SMU
Your game. Beat Missouri State and your playoff odds are 24%; lose and they drop to 16%.
SMU 95%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Wake Forest at Louisville
ACC race: Louisville losing helps your spot in the standings; Wake Forest visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Louisville 77%
TBD
FRI SEP 25
Clemson at California
ACC race: Clemson losing helps your spot in the standings; California visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.
Clemson 71%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Minnesota at Washington
Washington winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Washington 84%
53 more games that don't move your needle
Oregon State at UTEP
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Navy at UAB
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Ole Miss at Florida
Oklahoma at Georgia
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Wisconsin at Penn State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Oregon at USC
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
South Florida at Bowling Green
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
James Madison at Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.