🏈 Fan Watch

#21SMU Mustangs

3–1 · 1–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 pregame guide

SMU has a 90% chance to beat BC and is still its own biggest problem

Boston College should be a formality, but nine giveaways in four games say otherwise.

Read the rooting guide →
A 1928 newspaper illustration previewing SMU's football game against Army.
A 1928 newspaper preview of SMU against Army.
CreditPhoto creditAssociated Press (photographs), The Tennessean (text)Wikimedia Commons · Public domainCropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Boston College at SMU
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The CW Network
Final
Boston College
Final · Boston College 16–25 SMUWish granted ✓
SMU

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result SMU wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Pittsburgh
at
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
Final · Pittsburgh 35–33 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.6-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Virginia Tech won22% with the other result6.6-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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ACC Network
Impact 2
Louisville
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final · Louisville 28–31 NC StateWish granted ✓
Projected 6.4-point title-game boost

Louisville lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection28% if NC State won21% with the other result6.4-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Miami
at
Rooted for
Clemson
Final · Miami 41–13 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Clemson won8% with the other result2.2-point differenceSMU playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 4
Virginia
at
Rooted for
Florida State
Final · Virginia 7–38 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Virginia lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection25% if Florida State won23% with the other result2.5-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
51 other games had little impact
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · CBSSN
North Texas at Tulsa · ESPN
Liberty at Delaware · CBSSN
Penn State at Northwestern · FOX
Memphis at Charlotte · ESPN+
Alabama at Mississippi State · ABC
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · ESPNU
UCF at Houston · ESPN2
West Virginia at Iowa State · TNT
Notre Dame at North Carolina · ESPN
Stanford at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Syracuse at UConn · CBSSN
Michigan at Minnesota · FOX
Navy at Air Force · CBS
Michigan State at Wisconsin · BTN
Vanderbilt at Georgia · SEC Network
Western Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Ball State · ESPN+
Florida at Missouri · ABC
Auburn at Tennessee · ESPN
California at UNLV · CBSSN
Ohio State at Iowa · CBS
Wyoming at North Dakota State · The CW Network
Akron at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Ohio at Kent State · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Georgia State · ESPN+
Marshall at James Madison · ESPNU
Maryland at Nebraska · FS1
UTEP at New Mexico · MW+
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Purdue at Illinois · BTN
Oregon State at Colorado State · USA Network
Arkansas at Texas A&M · ESPN2
BYU at TCU · ESPN
UTSA at Rice · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
UL Monroe at South Alabama · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Colorado · FOX
Washington at USC · NBC
Utah State at Boise State · CBSSN
Temple at South Florida · ESPNU
Army at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Indiana at Rutgers · BTN
Arkansas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Fresno State at Washington State · USA Network
Baylor at Arizona State · ESPN
Texas State at San Diego State · The CW Network
Cincinnati at Arizona · FOX
San José State at Hawai'i · MW+
The rooting list was:SMU, then Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, Florida State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.