SMU Mustangs
0–0 · 0–0 ACC
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
44%
ACC title game
21%
Win the ACC
23%
Make the playoff
2%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.8
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Florida State.
If SMU wins out: 50% to win the ACC, 82% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves SMU's pathYour game
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… · ESPN
SMU at Florida State
Your game. Beat Florida State and your playoff odds are 29%; lose and they drop to 13%.
SMU 64%
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
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… · ESPN
Miami at Stanford
Stanford visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.
Miami 88%
Root for Stanford+5.0 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
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… · ESPN
NC State at Virginia
ACC race: NC State losing helps your spot in the standings; Virginia visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.
Virginia 53%
Root for Virginia+2.2 pp title-game odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
UNLV at Hawai'i
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Texas State at Texas
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Western Michigan at Michigan
Ohio at Nebraska
Ball State at Ohio State
Boise State at Oregon
Marshall at Penn State
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Arkansas State at Memphis
Florida International at South Florida
Western Kentucky at Nevada
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
East Carolina at Alabama · ABC
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.