The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
17 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Virginia | 1–0 | 1–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 18% | 5% | 6% |
 NC State | 0–1 | 0–1 | 4.5–4.5 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 #7Miami | 0–0 | 0–0 | 8.1–0.9 | 87% | 65% | 75% |
 #19SMU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 40% | 14% | 19% |
 #24Louisville | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.3–2.7 | 22% | 6% | 9% |
 Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 19% | 6% | 9% |
 Duke | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 5% | 1% | 2% |
 Clemson | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida State | 0–0 | 1–0 | 3.4–4.6 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Wake Forest | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–0 | 1–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 California | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 0–0 | 1–0 | 2.1–6.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Syracuse | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.9–7.1 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.