The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #12Texas Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 8.0–1.0 | 79% | 53% | 64% |
 #21Utah | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.2–1.8 | 56% | 29% | 38% |
 #14BYU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.6–3.4 | 17% | 6% | 13% |
 Kansas State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.5–3.5 | 11% | 3% | 4% |
 Arizona | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–4.3 | 8% | 3% | 4% |
 Iowa State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–4.0 | 8% | 2% | 2% |
 TCU | 0–0 | 0–1 | 4.5–4.5 | 6% | 2% | 2% |
 Arizona State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–4.2 | 5% | 1% | 2% |
 Kansas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 #23Houston | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.4–4.6 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.4–5.6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–5.4 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.4–7.6 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.