The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #11BYU | 1–0 | 2–0 | 6.1–2.9 | 21% | 7% | 18% |
 Arizona | 0–1 | 1–1 | 4.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | 1% |
 #17Utah | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.6–1.4 | 67% | 41% | 51% |
 #13Texas Tech | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.9–1.1 | 70% | 40% | 54% |
 Kansas State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 19% | 6% | 9% |
 Iowa State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.9–4.1 | 6% | 2% | 2% |
 TCU | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.4–4.6 | 5% | 1% | 2% |
 Arizona State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 #22Houston | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | 1% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.7–5.3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 0–0 | 2–0 | 2.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 2–0 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.9–7.1 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.