The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Way too early
WEEK 3 · 2026
Week 3 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 3.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
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4
Georgia0–073%
Georgia0–073%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Ohio State0–080%
Ohio State0–080%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
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2
Notre Dame0–099%
Notre Dame0–099%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the countryTBD
SAT SEP 19
35 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
FRI SEP 18
39 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
36 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
32 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
James Madison at San Diego State
James Madison 66%
23 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
22 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
11 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
17 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
20 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT SEP 19
East Carolina at Old Dominion
Old Dominion 65%
10 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.