The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame2–095%#4Indiana2–094%#1Texas2–086%#2Georgia2–086%#5Miami2–081%#6Ohio State1–175%#13Texas Tech2–054%#17Utah2–051%#9Texas A&M2–050%#14Penn State2–045%#8Ole Miss2–043%#10Alabama2–042%

#5Miami2–0 · ACC▲ +7pp81%

#6Ohio State1–1 · Big Ten▼ −18pp75%

#13Texas Tech2–0 · Big 12▼ −11pp54%

#17Utah2–0 · Big 12▲ +13pp51%

#9Texas A&M2–0 · SEC▲ +8pp50%

#14Penn State2–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp45%

#8Ole Miss2–0 · SEC▲ +1pp43%

#10Alabama2–0 · SEC▲ +5pp42%

James Madison2–0 · Sun Belt▼ −1pp35%

#12USC3–0 · Big Ten▲ +1pp34%

#7LSU2–0 · SEC▲ +9pp34%

#18Iowa2–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp29%

#16SMU2–0 · ACC▼ −1pp21%

Liberty1–1 · Conference USA▼ −1pp20%

North Texas1–1 · American Athletic▲ +15pp20%

#21Oregon1–1 · Big Ten▼ −36pp20%

#11BYU2–0 · Big 12▲ +3pp18%

South Florida2–0 · American Athletic▼ −4pp15%

…

… · ABC

#7LSUat#8Ole Miss

Final · #7 LSU 24–32 #8 Ole Miss

…

… · ESPN2

#16SMUat#23Louisville

Final · #16 SMU 31–41 #23 Louisville

…

… · FOX

#22Houstonat#13Texas Tech

Final · #22 Houston 26–28 #13 Texas Tech

…

… · FOX

Kent Stateat#6Ohio State

Final · Kent State 3–59 #6 Ohio State

…

… · ESPN

#5MiamiatWake Forest

Final · #5 Miami 33–20 Wake Forest

…

… · The CW Network

James MadisonatSan Diego State

Final · James Madison 26–13 San Diego State

…

… · Peacock

Western Kentuckyat#4Indiana

Final · Western Kentucky 0–38 #4 Indiana

…

… · CBS

#12USCatRutgers

Final · #12 USC 42–35 Rutgers

…

… · USA Network

North TexasatTexas State

Final · North Texas 35–49 Texas State

…

… · BTN

Buffaloat#14Penn State

Final · Buffalo 13–55 #14 Penn State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.