The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 3 · 2026

Week 3 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 3.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

FRI SEP 18

Miami at Wake Forest

Miami 85%

Who cares:Miami ±33pp SMU ±9pp South Florida ±4pp Clemson ±3pp

57 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

SMU at Louisville

SMU 53%

Who cares:SMU ±23pp Louisville ±12pp South Florida ±3pp Miami ±1pp

41 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ABC

LSU at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 83%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±28pp Iowa ±4pp Penn State ±3pp Vanderbilt ±3pp

52 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Utah State at Utah

Utah 93%

Who cares:Utah ±29pp Iowa ±5pp Texas ±3pp Ole Miss ±3pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Buffalo at Penn State

Penn State 97%

Who cares:Penn State ±31pp Alabama ±6pp Texas ±4pp Iowa ±4pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Florida State at Alabama

Alabama 88%

Who cares:Alabama ±21pp Iowa ±3pp Penn State ±3pp Utah ±3pp

41 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

UTSA at Texas

Texas 86%

Who cares:Texas ±17pp Alabama ±3pp Miami ±2pp Utah ±2pp

29 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

USC at Rutgers

USC 82%

Who cares:USC ±15pp Penn State ±2pp Texas ±2pp Iowa ±2pp

26 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

North Texas at Texas State

North Texas 57%

Who cares:North Texas ±5pp South Florida ±1pp

6 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Texas A&M 91%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±13pp Miami ±2pp Ole Miss ±2pp

17 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.