๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#3Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 3 ยท 2026
The Week 3 recap

Notre Dame beat Michigan State. Playoff odds moved from 95% to 97%.

Your game

Michigan State at Notre Dame
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Final
Michigan State
Final ยท Michigan State 10โ€“27 Notre DameWish granted โœ“
Notre Dame

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Kent State
at
Ohio State
Final ยท Kent State 3โ€“59 Ohio StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.8-point playoff boost

Ohio State won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection>99% if Kent State won95% with the other result3.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
UTSA
at
Texas
Final ยท UTSA 6โ€“30 TexasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point first-round-bye boost

Texas won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if UTSA won60% with the other result2.6-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
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Impact 3
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final ยท Georgia 45โ€“17 ArkansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Arkansas won60% with the other result2.6-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
53 other games had little impact
Houston at Texas Tech ยท FOX
BYU at Colorado State ยท CBS
Syracuse at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN
Miami at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Coastal Carolina at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Tulane at Kansas State ยท ESPN2
Bowling Green at Iowa State ยท ESPNU
Arizona State at Kansas ยท FS1
North Carolina at Clemson ยท ESPN
Akron at Minnesota ยท BTN
Buffalo at Penn State ยท BTN
North Texas at Texas State ยท USA Network
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin ยท Peacock
NC State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Wyoming at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Temple at Toledo ยท CBSSN
Florida State at Alabama ยท ABC
Kentucky at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati ยท ESPN+
Utah State at Utah ยท FOX
SMU at Louisville ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Michigan ยท BTN
USC at Rutgers ยท CBS
Stanford at Duke ยท The CW Network
Western Kentucky at Indiana ยท Peacock
Ball State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Baylor ยท ESPNU
Mississippi State at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
East Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at App State ยท ESPN+
Marshall at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Florida at Auburn ยท ESPN
Troy at Missouri ยท SECN+
Georgia State at UCF ยท ESPN+
UConn at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Rice ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Ohio at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
New Mexico at Oklahoma ยท ESPN2
Colorado at Northwestern ยท FOX
West Virginia at Virginia ยท ACC Network
Virginia Tech at Maryland ยท FS1
Kennesaw State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
Arkansas State at TCU ยท ESPNU
UAB at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
James Madison at San Diego State ยท The CW Network
Northern Illinois at Arizona ยท TNT
North Dakota State at Sacramento State ยท ESPN
Purdue at UCLA ยท BTN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Kent State, UTSA, Arkansas.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.