Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0–0 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
0%
Independent title game
0%
Win the Independent
99%
Make the playoff
84%
First-round bye
avg seed 2.8
The FBS Independents title is out of reach — the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-5 job: beat North Carolina.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Notre Dame's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Your game. Beat North Carolina and your playoff odds are 99%; lose and they drop to 95%.
Notre Dame 97%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Indiana at Rutgers
Seeding watch: Rutgers winning moves you from around the 3rd seed toward the 3rd — a friendlier bracket.
Indiana 94%
53 more games that don't move your needle
Ohio State at Iowa
BYU at TCU
North Texas at Tulsa
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Penn State at Northwestern
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Alabama at Mississippi State
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
Texas Tech at Colorado
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
California at UNLV
Louisville at NC State
Miami at Clemson
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Purdue at Illinois
Michigan at Minnesota
Maryland at Nebraska
Washington at USC
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
Memphis at Charlotte
UTSA at Rice
Navy at Air Force
Temple at South Florida
San José State at Hawai'i
UTEP at New Mexico
Akron at Central Michigan
Toledo at Ball State
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Ohio at Kent State
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Army at Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
Marshall at James Madison
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.