Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0–0 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
0%
Independent title game
0%
Win the Independent
99%
Make the playoff
84%
First-round bye
avg seed 2.8
The FBS Independents title is out of reach — the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Purdue.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Notre Dame's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Notre Dame at Purdue
Your game. Beat Purdue and your playoff odds are 99%; lose and they drop to 94%.
Notre Dame 97%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Illinois at Ohio State
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Illinois winning protects it.
Ohio State 91%
55 more games that don't move your needle
Oklahoma at Georgia
Oregon at USC
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
Navy at UAB
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Ole Miss at Florida
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Wisconsin at Penn State
Minnesota at Washington
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
South Florida at Bowling Green
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
James Madison at Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.