Alabama Crimson Tide

0–0 · 0–0 SEC

Way too early

WEEK 3 · 2026

24%

SEC title game

12%

Win the SEC

35%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 8.9

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-3 job: beat Florida State.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3

If Alabama wins out: 53% to win the SEC, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Alabama's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Florida State at Alabama

Your game. Beat Florida State and your playoff odds are 38%; lose and they drop to 17%.

Alabama 88%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Buffalo at Penn State

Buffalo winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Penn State 97%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 19

UTSA at Texas

UTSA winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 86%

…

… · ABC

LSU at Ole Miss

LSU visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

Ole Miss 83%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Utah State at Utah

Utah State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 93%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Georgia at Arkansas

SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Georgia in week 6.

Georgia 87%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Akron at Minnesota

Akron winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Minnesota 90%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

New Mexico at Oklahoma

New Mexico winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Oklahoma 87%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Colorado at Northwestern

Northwestern winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Northwestern 77%

47 more games that don't move your needle

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

Miami at Wake Forest

Florida at Auburn

Troy at Missouri

Mississippi State at South Carolina

Kennesaw State at Tennessee

Kentucky at Texas A&M

NC State at Vanderbilt

Tulane at Kansas State

Northern Illinois at Arizona

BYU at Colorado State

Miami (OH) at Cincinnati

Bowling Green at Iowa State

Arkansas State at TCU

Georgia State at UCF

Virginia at West Virginia

Houston at Texas Tech

Kansas at Arizona State

North Carolina at Clemson

SMU at Louisville

Stanford at Duke

Virginia Tech at Maryland

Western Kentucky at Indiana

UTEP at Michigan

Kent State at Ohio State

USC at Rutgers

Purdue at UCLA

Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin

James Madison at San Diego State

Fresno State at San José State

North Texas at Texas State

UConn at Southern Miss

East Carolina at Old Dominion

Florida International at Florida Atlantic

Western Michigan at Rice

Temple at Toledo

UAB at Louisiana

Nevada at Middle Tennessee

Wyoming at Central Michigan

Charlotte at App State

Ball State at Liberty

Ohio at South Alabama

Louisiana Tech at Baylor

Coastal Carolina at Delaware

Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State

Marshall at Missouri State

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.