The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #10Alabama | 1–0 | 2–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 25% | 12% | 42% |
 Kentucky | 0–1 | 1–1 | 1.2–7.8 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 #2Georgia | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.7–2.3 | 47% | 29% | 86% |
 #1Texas | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.3–2.7 | 34% | 19% | 86% |
 #9Texas A&M | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 25% | 13% | 50% |
 #8Ole Miss | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.5–3.5 | 21% | 10% | 43% |
 #7LSU | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 12% | 5% | 34% |
 #24Oklahoma | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.7–4.3 | 8% | 3% | 13% |
 South Carolina | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.0–4.0 | 9% | 3% | 11% |
 Vanderbilt | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 7% | 2% | 9% |
 #15Tennessee | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 5% | 2% | 14% |
 #20Missouri | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.1–4.9 | 3% | <1% | 8% |
 Auburn | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.7–5.3 | 2% | <1% | 3% |
 Florida | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.6–5.4 | 2% | <1% | 3% |
 Mississippi State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Arkansas | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.