The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
18 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Indiana | 0–0 | 2–0 | 8.2–0.8 | 78% | 61% | 94% |
 #6Ohio State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.7–2.3 | 32% | 15% | 75% |
 #14Penn State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.3–1.7 | 35% | 10% | 45% |
 #18Iowa | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 20% | 6% | 29% |
 #12USC | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 12% | 3% | 34% |
 #21Oregon | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.9–3.1 | 13% | 3% | 20% |
 Washington | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.6–4.4 | 4% | <1% | 8% |
 #19Michigan | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.4–4.6 | 2% | <1% | 8% |
 Nebraska | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | 5% |
 Illinois | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UCLA | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–0 | 1–0 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wisconsin | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Purdue | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–0 | 0–2 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.