๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#14Penn State Nittany Lions

2โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 3 ยท 2026
The Week 3 recap

Penn State beat Buffalo. Playoff odds moved from 45% to 53%.

Your game

Buffalo at Penn State
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Final
Buffalo
Final ยท Buffalo 13โ€“55 Penn StateWish granted โœ“
Penn State

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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Impact 1
Colorado
at
Rooted for
Northwestern
Final ยท Colorado 7โ€“41 NorthwesternWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Northwestern won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 5 game against Penn State.

Entering-week projection46% if Northwestern won44% with the other result1.7-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 2
USC
at
Rooted for
Rutgers
Final ยท USC 42โ€“35 RutgersWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

USC won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Rutgers won35% with the other result2.1-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 3
Virginia Tech
at
Rooted for
Maryland
Final ยท Virginia Tech 35โ€“26 MarylandWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Virginia Tech won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection46% if Maryland won44% with the other result1.4-point differencePenn State playoff chance
53 other games had little impact
Florida at Auburn ยท ESPN
Syracuse at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN
Miami at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Houston at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Coastal Carolina at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Georgia at Arkansas ยท ABC
Tulane at Kansas State ยท ESPN2
Bowling Green at Iowa State ยท ESPNU
Arizona State at Kansas ยท FS1
North Carolina at Clemson ยท ESPN
Akron at Minnesota ยท BTN
Kent State at Ohio State ยท FOX
North Texas at Texas State ยท USA Network
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin ยท Peacock
NC State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Wyoming at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Temple at Toledo ยท CBSSN
Florida State at Alabama ยท ABC
Kentucky at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati ยท ESPN+
Utah State at Utah ยท FOX
SMU at Louisville ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Michigan ยท BTN
Stanford at Duke ยท The CW Network
Western Kentucky at Indiana ยท Peacock
Ball State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Baylor ยท ESPNU
Mississippi State at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
East Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at App State ยท ESPN+
Marshall at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Troy at Missouri ยท SECN+
Georgia State at UCF ยท ESPN+
UConn at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Rice ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Ohio at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
New Mexico at Oklahoma ยท ESPN2
BYU at Colorado State ยท CBS
West Virginia at Virginia ยท ACC Network
Michigan State at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kennesaw State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
UTSA at Texas ยท SECN+
Arkansas State at TCU ยท ESPNU
UAB at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
James Madison at San Diego State ยท The CW Network
Northern Illinois at Arizona ยท TNT
North Dakota State at Sacramento State ยท ESPN
Purdue at UCLA ยท BTN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.