Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 12 · 2026

24%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

46%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 7.0

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-12 job: beat Rutgers.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

If Penn State wins out: 30% to win the Big Ten, 98% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Penn State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Rutgers at Penn State

Your game. Beat Rutgers and your playoff odds are 49%; lose and they drop to 18%.

Penn State 90%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Maryland at USC

Maryland visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

USC 90%

TBD

FRI NOV 20

Oregon at Michigan State

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings.

Oregon 87%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Ohio State at Nebraska

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Ohio State 83%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Indiana at Washington

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 77%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Iowa at Illinois

Illinois winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Iowa 68%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Northwestern at Minnesota

Minnesota winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Minnesota 56%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Utah at TCU

TCU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 65%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Vanderbilt at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Vanderbilt 64%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Utah State at Oregon State

Utah State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah State 64%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Georgia at South Carolina

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Georgia 69%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Memphis at Navy

Navy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Navy 64%

53 more games that don't move your needle

Ball State at Ohio

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Kent State

Akron at Massachusetts

Bowling Green at Toledo

Central Michigan at Buffalo

Rice at Temple

Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech

Clemson at Duke

Kentucky at Missouri

Texas A&M at Oklahoma

LSU at Tennessee

Arkansas at Texas

Arizona at Kansas State

BYU at Kansas

Colorado at Cincinnati

Houston at West Virginia

Iowa State at UCF

Oklahoma State at Arizona State

Texas Tech at Baylor

Virginia Tech at Miami

NC State at Florida State

North Carolina at Virginia

Pittsburgh at Louisville

Stanford at California

Syracuse at Boston College

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

UCLA at Michigan

Wisconsin at Purdue

Colorado State at Fresno State

Washington State at Texas State

San Diego State at Boise State

Old Dominion at UConn

East Carolina at Army

Charlotte at Tulsa

South Florida at Florida Atlantic

North Texas at Tulane

UTSA at UAB

Hawai'i at Nevada

New Mexico at Wyoming

UNLV at San José State

UTEP at Air Force

UL Monroe at App State

Coastal Carolina at Louisiana

Georgia Southern at Troy

Georgia State at Marshall

Delaware at New Mexico State

Florida International at Kennesaw State

Missouri State at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Liberty

Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston

South Alabama at Southern Miss

SMU at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.