Penn State Nittany Lions
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
24%
Big Ten title game
7%
Win the Big Ten
46%
Make the playoff
9%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.0
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-5 job: beat Northwestern.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Penn State's pathYour game
TBD
FRI OCT 2
Penn State at Northwestern
Your game. Beat Northwestern and your playoff odds are 52%; lose and they drop to 31%.
Penn State 71%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Indiana at Rutgers
Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Rutgers visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
Indiana 94%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Maryland at Nebraska
Maryland visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.
Nebraska 74%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Ohio State at Iowa
Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.
Ohio State 57%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Alabama at Mississippi State
Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Alabama 71%
50 more games that don't move your needle
Purdue at Illinois
Washington at USC
North Texas at Tulsa
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
BYU at TCU
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
Texas Tech at Colorado
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
California at UNLV
Louisville at NC State
Miami at Clemson
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Michigan at Minnesota
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
Memphis at Charlotte
UTSA at Rice
Navy at Air Force
Temple at South Florida
San José State at Hawai'i
UTEP at New Mexico
Akron at Central Michigan
Toledo at Ball State
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Ohio at Kent State
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Army at Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
Marshall at James Madison
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.