Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 11 · 2026

24%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

46%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 7.0

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-11 job: beat Minnesota.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

If Penn State wins out: 30% to win the Big Ten, 98% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Penn State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Minnesota at Penn State

Your game. Beat Minnesota and your playoff odds are 49%; lose and they drop to 18%.

Penn State 88%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 14

USC at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 90%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Northwestern at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Ohio State 92%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Michigan at Oregon

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings.

Oregon 81%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Purdue at Iowa

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings.

Iowa 95%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Wisconsin at Maryland

Maryland visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Maryland 51%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Duke at Miami

Duke winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Miami 86%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Utah at Arizona

Arizona winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 64%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Nebraska at Rutgers

Rutgers visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Rutgers 53%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Washington at Michigan State

Michigan State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Washington 76%

55 more games that don't move your needle

Western Michigan at Akron

Kent State at Bowling Green

Ohio at Miami (OH)

Buffalo at Ball State

Massachusetts at Toledo

Memphis at South Florida

Louisiana at UL Monroe

Florida State at Pittsburgh

Arizona State at UCF

Baylor at BYU

Cincinnati at Iowa State

Houston at Colorado

Kansas at West Virginia

Kansas State at TCU

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

South Carolina at Arkansas

Missouri at Georgia

Florida at Kentucky

Texas at LSU

Auburn at Mississippi State

Ole Miss at Oklahoma

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Alabama at Vanderbilt

California at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Louisville at North Carolina

Stanford at Virginia Tech

Syracuse at NC State

Wake Forest at SMU

Illinois at UCLA

Oregon State at Boise State

Utah State at San Diego State

Fresno State at Texas State

Colorado State at Washington State

James Madison at UConn

East Carolina at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at Tulsa

North Texas at UTSA

Tulane at Rice

UAB at Temple

Nevada at Northern Illinois

San José State at Air Force

UNLV at New Mexico

Wyoming at UTEP

App State at Marshall

Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern at Georgia State

Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky

Kennesaw State at Sam Houston

New Mexico State at Missouri State

Florida International at Delaware

Middle Tennessee at Liberty

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech

Troy at South Alabama

Boston College at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.