Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

24%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

46%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 7.0

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Wisconsin.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Penn State wins out: 30% to win the Big Ten, 98% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Penn State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Your game. Beat Wisconsin and your playoff odds are 48%; lose and they drop to 29%.

Penn State 89%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings; USC visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.

Oregon 56%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Northwestern at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 5 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 96%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.

Iowa 52%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas A&M at LSU

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 56%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Illinois at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Ohio State 91%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Minnesota at Washington

Big Ten race: Washington losing helps your spot in the standings; Minnesota visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Washington 84%

TBD

FRI SEP 25

Clemson at California

California winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Clemson 71%

49 more games that don't move your needle

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Navy at UAB

South Carolina at Alabama

Tulsa at Arkansas

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Ole Miss at Florida

Oklahoma at Georgia

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Utah at Iowa State

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

UCLA at Maryland

Nebraska at Michigan State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.