Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

27%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

60%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 9.0

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-4 job: beat Wisconsin.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Penn State wins out: 32% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Penn State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Your game. Beat Wisconsin and your playoff odds are 62%; lose and they drop to 31%.

Penn State 92%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Northwestern at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 5 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 97%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

You still play USC in week 6.

Oregon 63%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Central Michigan at Miami

Central Michigan winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Miami 97%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ole Miss 79%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Michigan visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.

Iowa 54%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Utah at Iowa State

Iowa State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 76%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Rice at Fresno State

Fresno State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Fresno State 91%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Carolina at Alabama

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 80%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Illinois at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Ohio State 96%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas at Tennessee

Tennessee winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 52%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oklahoma at Georgia

Georgia winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Georgia 81%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas A&M at LSU

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 62%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Auburn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Vanderbilt 65%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Houston at Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Houston 65%

42 more games that don't move your needle

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

Tulsa at Arkansas

Missouri at Mississippi State

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

UCLA at Maryland

Nebraska at Michigan State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Minnesota at Washington

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.