🏈 Fan Watch

#13Penn State Nittany Lions

3–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
Week 4 pregame guide

Penn State finally ran the ball, and Wisconsin is the first defense that will argue

Quinton Martin Jr. went from no offensive snaps at Temple to 100 yards against Buffalo. The Big Ten opener asks whether 304 rushing yards meant anything.

Read the rooting guide →
Penn State players celebrate a touchdown against Michigan at Beaver Stadium in 2017.
Penn State celebrates a touchdown at Beaver Stadium in 2017.
CreditPhoto creditMaize & Blue NationWikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Wisconsin at Penn State
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ERADM
Final
Wisconsin
Final · Wisconsin 24–20 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Penn State

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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FOX
Impact 1
Rooted for
Northwestern
at
Indiana
Final · Northwestern 23–29 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Projected 10.6-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Northwestern won41% with the other result11-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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Peacock
Impact 2
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final · Notre Dame 49–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.7-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if Purdue won53% with the other result4.7-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 3
Rooted for
Illinois
at
Ohio State
Final · Illinois 19–42 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.3-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection47% if Illinois won41% with the other result6.3-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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CBS
Impact 4
Iowa
at
Rooted for
Michigan
Final · Iowa 20–19 MichiganWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.7-point title-game boost

Iowa won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if Michigan won39% with the other result4.7-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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NBC
Impact 5
Oregon
at
Rooted for
USC
Final · Oregon 41–27 USCWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if USC won39% with the other result4.5-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 6
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Florida
Final · Ole Miss 28–52 FloridaWish granted ✓
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Florida won, thinning out the at-large competition for Penn State's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection54% if Florida won53% with the other result1.6-point differencePenn State playoff chance
51 other games had little impact
Liberty at Coastal Carolina · ESPN
Army at Temple · ESPN
Navy at UAB · ESPN
Clemson at California · ESPN
Texas at Tennessee · ABC
Sam Houston at Texas Tech · TNT
Colorado at Baylor · ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Louisville · ESPN
San Diego State at Toledo · CBSSN
Colorado State at UTSA · ESPNU
UNLV at Akron · ESPN+
Ball State at Kent State · ESPN+
South Alabama at Kentucky · SEC Network
UCLA at Maryland · BTN
Northern Illinois at Georgia State · ESPN+
Hawai'i at Wyoming · The CW Network
Oklahoma at Georgia · ESPN
TCU at UCF · FS1
Utah at Iowa State · FOX
Boise State at Western Michigan · ESPN2
UConn at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
New Mexico at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Houston at Georgia Southern · ESPNU
Vanderbilt at Auburn · SEC Network
Nebraska at Michigan State · BTN
South Florida at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Delaware at Virginia · ACC Network
James Madison at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Miami · The CW Network
Louisiana at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Carolina at Alabama · ESPN
Kansas State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at West Virginia · FS1
Southern Miss at Tulane · ESPN+
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Arizona at Washington State · CBS
Troy at Utah State · CBSSN
App State at NC State · ESPNU
Missouri at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Tulsa at Arkansas · SECN+
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Missouri State at SMU · ACC Network
Oregon State at UTEP · MW+
Massachusetts at Sacramento State · ESPN+
Rice at Fresno State · The CW Network
Georgia Tech at Stanford · ESPN
Air Force at Nevada · FS1
Minnesota at Washington · FOX
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, USC, Florida.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.