Wisconsin trailed 17-0 at Beaver Stadium on Saturday and won anyway, scoring 14 points in the final 3:31, an 11-yard touchdown catch, then a 72-yard touchdown catch with 1:13 left, to take a 24-20 decision in Penn State's Big Ten opener. It was called the biggest win of Luke Fickell's Wisconsin tenure. Twelve months earlier, Penn State lost a game in the same building to Northwestern, 22-21, and James Franklin was fired the next morning. Now Matt Campbell, hired that December as Penn State's head coach, takes his team to Evanston to play the opponent whose upset preceded the end of the previous regime.
The symmetry is real, but it is not the thing to watch. The thing to watch is whether this offense can operate for four quarters. Campbell said afterward that his offense was "choppy" between the offensive line, receivers and running backs, adding, "this is not the rhythm we want to play in." Rocco Becht, who threw for 114 yards and an interception, graded his own night "Not great," saying he put the offense in situations where its backs were against the wall. Penn State finished with 248 total yards to Wisconsin's 355. It was the first time this reconstructed group had faced a legitimate Big Ten defense, and the yardage gap says what the scoreboard obscured for three quarters.
Some of that was personnel. Leading receiver Koby Howard, hurt on his 70-yard touchdown catch against Buffalo, missed the Wisconsin game entirely, and Campbell said he will be out "for probably an extended period of time," into October. Howard was the one receiver who had clearly separated himself, with a six-catch, 161-yard, one-touchdown opener against Marshall. Chase Sowell, Brett Eskildsen and the tight ends have to be enough.
There were things to keep. Tony Rojas and Daryus Dixson each intercepted Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph, Dixson's pick setting up a Becht touchdown run and Rojas's coming in the fourth quarter at the Penn State 45. Center Brock Riker, who was listed as questionable, and tight end Andrew Rappleyea both started and played. For a team asking whether its rebuilt line and its recovering pieces can survive a conference schedule, availability on a road trip counts.
Penn State at Northwestern: the game that matters
Friday, October 2, 8 p.m. ET on FOX. The model gives Penn State a 73% chance to win. That is favored, not safe. Northwestern comes in off its own loss, 29-23 at then-No. 5 Indiana. Penn State fell out of the AP Top 25 entirely after the Wisconsin result, receiving 98 votes after entering the week at No. 13.
The playoff math is stark. Win in Evanston and Penn State's College Football Playoff odds sit near 25%; lose and they fall to about 7%. Those are two alternative versions of next Monday, not a number that moves in sequence. The Big Ten title-game picture moves the same way, with roughly 14% after a win and under 1% after a loss.
What a fan should actually be watching is the first drive after Northwestern scores. Penn State's defense held for three quarters and then gave up touchdowns on Wisconsin's final two possessions.
Indiana at Rutgers: root for Rutgers
Saturday, October 3, 8 p.m. ET on BTN. Rutgers has a 3% chance to beat No. 6 Indiana at home, so expect Indiana to win and be pleasantly surprised if it does not. But it is a direct standings play. Indiana is the Big Ten team most likely to occupy a championship-game slot Penn State wants. A Rutgers upset puts Penn State's title-game odds around 15.8%; the expected Indiana win leaves them near 10.5%. That 5.3-point difference is the largest outside swing available this week, and it costs nothing to check the score.
Nothing else on the board moves Penn State's numbers enough to reorganize a Saturday around.
Full game-by-game numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.