The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
17 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #6Indiana | 0–0 | 0–0 | 8.2–0.8 | 74% | 56% | 93% |
 #1Ohio State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.7–2.3 | 32% | 15% | 92% |
 #18Penn State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.4–1.6 | 35% | 11% | 44% |
 #2Oregon | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.6–2.4 | 22% | 7% | 72% |
 #22Iowa | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.6–2.4 | 19% | 5% | 30% |
 #14USC | 0–0 | 1–0 | 5.6–3.4 | 10% | 3% | 33% |
 #17Washington | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–4.2 | 4% | 1% | 17% |
 #16Michigan | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | 9% |
 Illinois | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–4.7 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Nebraska | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wisconsin | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UCLA | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Purdue | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.0–7.0 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.