The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan | 1–0 | 1–0 | 5.1–2.9 | 19% | 6% | <1% |
 Sacramento State | 0–1 | 0–1 | 5.2–2.8 | 21% | 10% | <1% |
 Toledo | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 59% | 38% | 3% |
 Western Michigan | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 55% | 31% | 1% |
 Buffalo | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–3.1 | 16% | 6% | <1% |
 Ohio | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.6–3.4 | 12% | 4% | <1% |
 Bowling Green | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 8% | 2% | <1% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 6% | 1% | <1% |
 Central Michigan | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–4.4 | 5% | 1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.