The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.3–0.7 | 89% | 77% | 38% |
 Louisiana Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–2.8 | 32% | 6% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–3.3 | 20% | 3% | <1% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 14% | 3% | <1% |
 South Alabama | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.4–3.6 | 16% | 3% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 11% | 2% | <1% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.6–3.4 | 4% | 2% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.8–4.2 | 3% | 2% | <1% |
 Southern Miss | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–4.4 | 7% | 1% | <1% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.5–4.5 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 App State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–4.4 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.3–6.7 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.