James Madison Dukes
0–0 · 0–0 SUN BELT
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
79%
Sun Belt title game
62%
Win the Sun Belt
36%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 10.5
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Liberty.
If James Madison wins out: 82% to win the Sun Belt, 79% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves James Madison's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Liberty at James Madison
Your game. Beat Liberty and your playoff odds are 37%; lose and they drop to 24%.
James Madison 90%
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
Miami at Stanford
Stanford winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Miami 88%
Root for Stanford+2.1 pp playoff odds
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Florida International at South Florida
Florida International winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
South Florida 91%
Root for Florida International+1.9 pp playoff odds
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Marshall at Penn State
Sun Belt race: Marshall losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Marshall in week 5.
Penn State 94%
Root for Penn State+2.2 pp title-game odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Texas State at Texas
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Western Michigan at Michigan
Ohio at Nebraska
Ball State at Ohio State
Boise State at Oregon
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Arkansas State at Memphis
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Sam Houston at Troy
East Carolina at Alabama · ABC
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
SMU at Florida State · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.