The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Florida | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 57% | 37% | 18% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 33% | 16% | 4% |
 Navy | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.5–2.5 | 27% | 12% | 2% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 1–0 | 5.0–3.0 | 20% | 9% | 3% |
 Army | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.1–2.9 | 19% | 8% | 1% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–3.1 | 16% | 7% | 1% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–3.2 | 16% | 7% | 1% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–3.2 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 UAB | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Tulsa | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.5–6.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.