The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Florida | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 44% | 27% | 16% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.0–2.0 | 37% | 20% | 9% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.6–2.4 | 31% | 16% | 7% |
 Army | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–2.7 | 21% | 9% | 3% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.5–2.5 | 20% | 9% | 3% |
 Navy | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.4–2.6 | 21% | 9% | 3% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–3.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 9% | 4% | 1% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UAB | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Tulsa | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.