The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 12 · 2026
Week 12 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Texas | 1–0 | 3–2 | 6.3–1.7 | 56% | 31% | 6% |
 Memphis | 1–0 | 4–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 46% | 25% | 6% |
 UTSA | 1–0 | 4–1 | 4.9–3.1 | 16% | 6% | <1% |
 UAB | 1–0 | 3–2 | 3.8–4.2 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 1–0 | 4–1 | 3.3–4.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 South Florida | 1–1 | 4–1 | 5.1–2.9 | 32% | 18% | 5% |
 Army | 1–1 | 2–2 | 5.0–3.0 | 15% | 6% | <1% |
 Temple | 1–1 | 2–3 | 3.9–4.1 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Navy | 0–2 | 1–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Rice | 0–1 | 1–4 | 1.5–6.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–1 | 3–2 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–1 | 0–5 | 0.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 17% | 7% | <1% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.6–3.4 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.