The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Florida | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.3–1.7 | 62% | 35% | 11% |
 UAB | 1–0 | 2–2 | 3.8–4.2 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 1–0 | 3–1 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Army | 1–1 | 2–1 | 5.1–2.9 | 15% | 6% | <1% |
 Navy | 0–2 | 1–2 | 3.9–4.1 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 Temple | 0–1 | 1–3 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 2–2 | 6.4–1.6 | 63% | 37% | 12% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.8–3.2 | 16% | 6% | <1% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 15% | 6% | <1% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.8–3.2 | 14% | 6% | <1% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 Tulsa | 0–0 | 3–1 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 1–3 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 0–4 | 1.2–6.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.