The Conference USA race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 1–0 | 3–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 52% | 11% | <1% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.5–4.5 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Liberty | 0–0 | 3–1 | 7.3–0.7 | 94% | 80% | 20% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.6–3.4 | 20% | 4% | <1% |
 Delaware | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.8–4.2 | 11% | 2% | 0% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.4–4.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 6% | 1% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.9–5.1 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Western Kentucky | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.9–5.1 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.