The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #13Utah | 1–0 | 4–0 | 8.0–1.0 | 81% | 51% | 64% |
 #12Texas Tech | 1–0 | 4–0 | 8.0–1.0 | 76% | 38% | 53% |
 #10BYU | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 18% | 5% | 22% |
 UCF | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.9–4.1 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona State | 1–0 | 2–1 | 4.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Baylor | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Cincinnati | 1–0 | 4–0 | 3.8–5.2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 #19Oklahoma State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 5.4–3.6 | 5% | 1% | 5% |
 Iowa State | 0–1 | 2–2 | 5.2–3.8 | 5% | 1% | 4% |
 Arizona | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | 2% |
 TCU | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.8–5.2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 #20Houston | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.3–4.7 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Kansas | 0–1 | 1–2 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–1 | 3–1 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.