The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 11 · 2026
Week 11 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #12Utah | 1–0 | 4–0 | 7.9–1.1 | 76% | 48% | 60% |
 #11Texas Tech | 2–0 | 5–0 | 8.0–1.0 | 74% | 37% | 49% |
 #8BYU | 2–0 | 4–0 | 6.4–2.6 | 24% | 7% | 33% |
 Baylor | 2–0 | 4–1 | 5.4–3.6 | 9% | 2% | 3% |
 #18Oklahoma State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 1–1 | 4–1 | 5.0–4.0 | 5% | 2% | 6% |
 Iowa State | 1–1 | 3–2 | 5.1–3.9 | 4% | 1% | 4% |
 #22Houston | 1–1 | 4–1 | 4.7–4.3 | 1% | <1% | 2% |
 UCF | 1–1 | 3–2 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Cincinnati | 1–1 | 4–1 | 3.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona State | 1–1 | 2–2 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 5.4–3.6 | 4% | 1% | 5% |
 Kansas | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.2–4.8 | 1% | <1% | 1% |
 TCU | 0–2 | 2–3 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 0–2 | 2–3 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 0–2 | 3–2 | 1.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.