Texas Tech Red Raiders

0–0 · 0–0 BIG 12

Way too early

WEEK 11 · 2026

78%

Big 12 title game

52%

Win the Big 12

67%

Make the playoff

21%

First-round bye

avg seed 6.3

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-11 job: beat Oklahoma State.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

If Texas Tech wins out: 66% to win the Big 12, 91% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas Tech's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Your game. Beat Oklahoma State and your playoff odds are 68%; lose and they drop to 41%.

Texas Tech 95%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Utah at Arizona

Arizona winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 64%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Baylor at BYU

Baylor visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

BYU 79%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

USC at Indiana

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and USC winning protects it.

Indiana 90%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Kansas State at TCU

Big 12 race: Kansas State losing helps your spot in the standings; TCU visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

TCU 61%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Northwestern at Ohio State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Northwestern winning protects it.

Ohio State 92%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Michigan at Oregon

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Michigan winning protects it.

Oregon 81%

58 more games that don't move your needle

Cincinnati at Iowa State

Ole Miss at Oklahoma

Western Michigan at Akron

Kent State at Bowling Green

Ohio at Miami (OH)

Buffalo at Ball State

Massachusetts at Toledo

Memphis at South Florida

Louisiana at UL Monroe

Florida State at Pittsburgh

Arizona State at UCF

Houston at Colorado

Kansas at West Virginia

South Carolina at Arkansas

Missouri at Georgia

Florida at Kentucky

Texas at LSU

Auburn at Mississippi State

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Alabama at Vanderbilt

California at Virginia

Duke at Miami

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Louisville at North Carolina

Stanford at Virginia Tech

Syracuse at NC State

Wake Forest at SMU

Purdue at Iowa

Wisconsin at Maryland

Washington at Michigan State

Minnesota at Penn State

Nebraska at Rutgers

Illinois at UCLA

Oregon State at Boise State

Utah State at San Diego State

Fresno State at Texas State

Colorado State at Washington State

James Madison at UConn

East Carolina at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at Tulsa

North Texas at UTSA

Tulane at Rice

UAB at Temple

Nevada at Northern Illinois

San José State at Air Force

UNLV at New Mexico

Wyoming at UTEP

App State at Marshall

Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern at Georgia State

Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky

Kennesaw State at Sam Houston

New Mexico State at Missouri State

Florida International at Delaware

Middle Tennessee at Liberty

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech

Troy at South Alabama

Boston College at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.