Texas Tech Red Raiders
0–0 · 0–0 BIG 12
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
78%
Big 12 title game
52%
Win the Big 12
67%
Make the playoff
21%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.3
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Sam Houston.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas Tech's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Your game. Beat Sam Houston and your playoff odds are 67%; lose and they drop to 54%.
Texas Tech 99%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Utah at Iowa State
Iowa State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Utah 68%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Kansas State at Cincinnati
Big 12 race: Kansas State losing helps your spot in the standings; Cincinnati visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.
Kansas State 56%
54 more games that don't move your needle
Oregon at USC
Wisconsin at Penn State
Arizona at Washington State
Ole Miss at Florida
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
Navy at UAB
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Oklahoma at Georgia
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
TCU at UCF
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Minnesota at Washington
Rice at Fresno State
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Colorado State at UTSA
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Army at Temple
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Southern Miss at Tulane
South Florida at Bowling Green
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
James Madison at Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.