The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #11Texas Tech | 1–0 | 3–0 | 7.9–1.1 | 70% | 37% | 50% |
 #9BYU | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 18% | 6% | 19% |
 Arizona State | 1–0 | 2–1 | 4.8–4.2 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–1 | 2–1 | 4.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | 2% |
 #25Houston | 0–1 | 2–1 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Kansas | 0–1 | 1–2 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #15Utah | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.6–1.4 | 66% | 43% | 56% |
 Kansas State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 16% | 5% | 8% |
 Iowa State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.6–3.4 | 13% | 4% | 7% |
 TCU | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.6–4.4 | 5% | 2% | 2% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.9–5.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 3–0 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.1–6.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.