The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Georgia | 1–0 | 3–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 57% | 36% | 88% |
 #4Ole Miss | 1–0 | 3–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 28% | 13% | 58% |
 #8Alabama | 1–0 | 3–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 26% | 12% | 47% |
 #21Florida | 1–0 | 3–0 | 4.1–4.9 | 3% | <1% | 6% |
 #24Mississippi State | 1–0 | 3–0 | 4.0–5.0 | 3% | <1% | 4% |
 Kentucky | 1–1 | 2–1 | 2.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #10LSU | 0–1 | 2–1 | 4.7–4.3 | 6% | 2% | 28% |
 #23Texas A&M | 0–1 | 2–1 | 4.4–4.6 | 4% | 2% | 16% |
 South Carolina | 0–1 | 2–1 | 3.9–5.1 | 2% | <1% | 7% |
 Auburn | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Arkansas | 0–1 | 1–2 | 1.5–7.5 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 #1Texas | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.6–2.4 | 42% | 23% | 89% |
 #14Tennessee | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.1–3.9 | 10% | 3% | 21% |
 Oklahoma | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.7–4.3 | 9% | 3% | 11% |
 Vanderbilt | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.7–4.3 | 7% | 2% | 8% |
 #19Missouri | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.1–4.9 | 3% | <1% | 8% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.