The Mountain West race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Dakota State | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.8–2.2 | 69% | 43% | 4% |
 UNLV | 1–0 | 1–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 31% | 13% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–1 | 1–2 | 3.9–4.1 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–1 | 1–1 | 3.9–4.1 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 47% | 25% | 2% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 18% | 7% | <1% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.5–4.5 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.8–5.2 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 0–3 | 2.6–5.4 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.