The Mountain West race
9 teams · two title-game spots
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
Week 4 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 4.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLV | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–2.1 | 61% | 41% | 3% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–2.7 | 40% | 20% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–2.8 | 35% | 17% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.7–3.3 | 21% | 9% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–3.7 | 14% | 5% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–3.8 | 12% | 4% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.1–3.9 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.6–5.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.6–4.4 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.