The Mountain West race
10 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 10 · 2026
Week 10 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Mexico | 1–0 | 4–1 | 6.4–1.6 | 72% | 45% | 15% |
 North Dakota State | 2–0 | 5–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 73% | 39% | 6% |
 UNLV | 1–0 | 3–2 | 5.0–3.0 | 21% | 7% | <1% |
 San José State | 1–0 | 3–2 | 5.2–3.8 | 17% | 4% | <1% |
 Air Force | 1–1 | 3–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 11% | 3% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 1–1 | 2–3 | 3.4–4.6 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Nevada | 0–1 | 1–3 | 3.7–4.3 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–3 | 1–4 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–1 | 1–4 | 0.9–7.1 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 0–4 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.