The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 10 · 2026
Week 10 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Miami | 3–0 | 5–0 | 8.6–0.4 | 98% | 82% | 95% |
 #25Pittsburgh | 2–0 | 5–0 | 6.3–2.7 | 19% | 3% | 6% |
 Duke | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 14% | 2% | 4% |
 #24SMU | 2–1 | 4–1 | 6.8–2.2 | 32% | 6% | 8% |
 Wake Forest | 2–1 | 4–1 | 5.7–3.3 | 16% | 3% | 4% |
 Clemson | 2–1 | 3–2 | 4.5–3.5 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida State | 1–1 | 3–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 4% | <1% | 2% |
 Virginia | 1–1 | 3–2 | 5.2–3.8 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
 NC State | 1–1 | 3–2 | 5.0–4.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 1–1 | 4–1 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 California | 1–1 | 2–3 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Louisville | 1–2 | 2–3 | 5.4–3.6 | 7% | 1% | 4% |
 Stanford | 1–3 | 2–3 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia Tech | 0–1 | 1–3 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–1 | 2–2 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–2 | 2–3 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Syracuse | 0–2 | 2–2 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.