The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 10 · 2026
Week 10 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #7Indiana | 2–0 | 5–0 | 8.1–0.9 | 75% | 51% | 89% |
 #5Ohio State | 2–0 | 4–1 | 7.5–1.5 | 66% | 37% | 91% |
 #13Oregon | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.6–2.4 | 24% | 6% | 36% |
 Wisconsin | 2–0 | 4–1 | 6.4–2.6 | 10% | 1% | 3% |
 Nebraska | 2–0 | 5–0 | 5.1–3.9 | 4% | <1% | 7% |
 #21UCLA | 2–0 | 4–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 5% | <1% | 6% |
 Minnesota | 2–0 | 4–1 | 4.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #19USC | 2–1 | 5–1 | 4.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | 11% |
 #20Iowa | 1–1 | 4–1 | 6.0–3.0 | 10% | 2% | 18% |
 Northwestern | 1–1 | 3–1 | 4.9–4.1 | 2% | <1% | 6% |
 Purdue | 1–1 | 2–3 | 2.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 0–2 | 3–2 | 5.4–3.6 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
 Washington | 0–2 | 3–2 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
 Michigan | 0–2 | 3–2 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 5% |
 Illinois | 0–2 | 2–3 | 2.5–6.5 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–2 | 2–3 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan State | 0–2 | 2–3 | 1.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 0–2 | 1–4 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.