Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 10 · 2026

34%

Big Ten title game

13%

Win the Big Ten

70%

Make the playoff

24%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.9

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-10 job: beat Ohio State.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If Oregon wins out: 41% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Oregon at Ohio State

Your game. Beat Ohio State and your playoff odds are 86%; lose and they drop to 62%.

Ohio State 67%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Penn State at Washington

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings; Washington visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Washington 54%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Iowa at Northwestern

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings.

Iowa 69%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Alabama at LSU

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 55%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Oklahoma at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Oklahoma 58%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Vanderbilt 73%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Texas A&M at South Carolina

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 54%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Texas at Missouri

Missouri winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 54%

53 more games that don't move your needle

UCLA at Minnesota

Boise State at Colorado State

Ohio at Akron

Buffalo at Miami (OH)

Ball State at Massachusetts

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan

UTSA at Florida Atlantic

James Madison at Southern Miss

TCU at Arizona

Virginia Tech at SMU

South Florida at East Carolina

Arkansas at Auburn

Georgia at Ole Miss

Kentucky at Tennessee

BYU at Utah

UCF at Kansas

Cincinnati at Houston

Colorado at Arizona State

Iowa State at Baylor

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Clemson at Syracuse

Duke at NC State

Louisville at Georgia Tech

Florida State at Boston College

North Carolina at UConn

Nebraska at Illinois

Michigan State at Michigan

Maryland at Purdue

Rutgers at Wisconsin

Texas State at Oregon State

Fresno State at Utah State

Charlotte at UAB

Temple at Navy

Rice at North Texas

Tulsa at Tulane

Air Force at Army

Hawai'i at UTEP

New Mexico at Nevada

Northern Illinois at San José State

Wyoming at UNLV

Georgia State at App State

UL Monroe at Arkansas State

Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina

Marshall at Georgia Southern

South Alabama at Louisiana

Liberty at New Mexico State

Delaware at Kennesaw State

Missouri State at Florida International

Sam Houston at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee

Louisiana Tech at Troy

Miami at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.