Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

34%

Big Ten title game

13%

Win the Big Ten

70%

Make the playoff

24%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.9

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat USC.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Oregon wins out: 41% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Your game. Beat USC and your playoff odds are 78%; lose and they drop to 60%.

Oregon 56%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Northwestern at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 96%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Illinois at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; Illinois visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.

Ohio State 91%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Alabama at Kentucky

South Alabama winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Kentucky 85%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Notre Dame at Purdue

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Purdue winning protects it.

Notre Dame 97%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Iowa 52%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 89%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ole Miss 73%

49 more games that don't move your needle

Minnesota at Washington

Nebraska at Michigan State

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

South Carolina at Alabama

Tulsa at Arkansas

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Oklahoma at Georgia

Texas A&M at LSU

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Utah at Iowa State

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

UCLA at Maryland

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.