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Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
34%
Big Ten title game
13%
Win the Big Ten
70%
Make the playoff
24%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.9
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Boise State.

If Oregon wins out: 41% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path
Your game
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Boise State at Oregon

Your game. Beat Boise State and your playoff odds are 72%; lose and they drop to 55%.

Oregon 94%
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Western Michigan at Michigan

Michigan visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Michigan 90%
Root for Michigan+2.8 pp playoff odds
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Missouri State at Texas A&M

Missouri State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 96%
Root for Missouri State+2.7 pp playoff odds
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Northern Illinois at Iowa

Big Ten race: Northern Illinois losing helps your spot in the standings.

Iowa 98%
Root for Iowa+3.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ABC
East Carolina at Alabama

East Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 89%
Root for East Carolina+2.3 pp playoff odds
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Texas State at Texas

Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 90%
Root for Texas State+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
…
Notre Dame at Wisconsin

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Wisconsin winning protects it.

Notre Dame 95%
Root for Wisconsin+3.5 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss

Louisville winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ole Miss 79%
Root for Louisville+1.4 pp playoff odds
41 more games that don't move your needle
Miami at Stanford · ESPN
Ohio at Nebraska
Toledo at Michigan State
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Ball State at Ohio State
Marshall at Penn State
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Arkansas State at Memphis
Florida International at South Florida
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
SMU at Florida State · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.