Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 6 · 2026

34%

Big Ten title game

13%

Win the Big Ten

70%

Make the playoff

24%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.9

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-6 job: beat UCLA.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6

If Oregon wins out: 41% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Your game

TBD

SAT OCT 10

UCLA at Oregon

Your game. Beat UCLA and your playoff odds are 71%; lose and they drop to 50%.

Oregon 96%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Indiana at Nebraska

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Nebraska visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 91%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

…

Stanford at Notre Dame

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Stanford winning protects it.

Notre Dame 99%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Maryland at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Ohio State in week 10.

Ohio State 96%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

USC at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 68%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Iowa at Washington

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings; Washington visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Washington 55%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

UAB at Memphis

Memphis winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Memphis 85%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas A&M at Missouri

Missouri winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Missouri 51%

48 more games that don't move your needle

Iowa State at BYU

LSU at Kentucky

Southern Miss at Troy

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State

New Mexico State at Florida International

South Florida at UTSA

South Alabama at Arkansas State

Sam Houston at Liberty

Missouri State at Western Kentucky

Florida State at Louisville

Washington State at Utah State

Georgia at Alabama

Tennessee at Arkansas

South Carolina at Florida

Texas at Oklahoma

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Hawai'i at Arizona State

Arizona at West Virginia

UCF at Oklahoma State

Houston at Kansas State

Kansas at Utah

Duke at Georgia Tech

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Syracuse at Virginia

Virginia Tech at California

Wake Forest at NC State

Illinois at Michigan State

Ball State at Northwestern

Minnesota at Purdue

Boise State at Fresno State

San Diego State at Oregon State

UConn at Temple

Tulane at Army

Charlotte at North Texas

Rice at East Carolina

Tulsa at Navy

Air Force at Northern Illinois

Nevada at UTEP

Wyoming at San José State

Eastern Michigan at Akron

Buffalo at Toledo

Central Michigan at Ohio

Kent State at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Massachusetts

Old Dominion at App State

Coastal Carolina at Marshall

James Madison at Georgia Southern

Louisiana at Louisiana Tech

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.