Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 11 · 2026

34%

Big Ten title game

13%

Win the Big Ten

70%

Make the playoff

24%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.9

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-11 job: beat Michigan.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

If Oregon wins out: 41% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Michigan at Oregon

Your game. Beat Michigan and your playoff odds are 77%; lose and they drop to 44%.

Oregon 81%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Northwestern at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Ohio State 92%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

USC at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 90%

…

Boston College at Notre Dame

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Boston College winning protects it.

Notre Dame 99%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Minnesota at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 88%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Purdue at Iowa

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings.

Iowa 95%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Texas at LSU

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 60%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Washington at Michigan State

Big Ten race: Washington losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan State visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Washington 76%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Seeding watch: Oklahoma State winning moves you from around the 6th seed toward the 6th — a friendlier bracket.

Texas Tech 95%

56 more games that don't move your needle

Utah at Arizona

Auburn at Mississippi State

Oregon State at Boise State

Nebraska at Rutgers

Missouri at Georgia

Western Michigan at Akron

Kent State at Bowling Green

Ohio at Miami (OH)

Buffalo at Ball State

Massachusetts at Toledo

Memphis at South Florida

Louisiana at UL Monroe

Florida State at Pittsburgh

Arizona State at UCF

Baylor at BYU

Cincinnati at Iowa State

Houston at Colorado

Kansas at West Virginia

Kansas State at TCU

South Carolina at Arkansas

Florida at Kentucky

Ole Miss at Oklahoma

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Alabama at Vanderbilt

California at Virginia

Duke at Miami

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Louisville at North Carolina

Stanford at Virginia Tech

Syracuse at NC State

Wake Forest at SMU

Wisconsin at Maryland

Illinois at UCLA

Utah State at San Diego State

Fresno State at Texas State

Colorado State at Washington State

James Madison at UConn

East Carolina at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at Tulsa

North Texas at UTSA

Tulane at Rice

UAB at Temple

Nevada at Northern Illinois

San José State at Air Force

UNLV at New Mexico

Wyoming at UTEP

App State at Marshall

Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern at Georgia State

Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky

Kennesaw State at Sam Houston

New Mexico State at Missouri State

Florida International at Delaware

Middle Tennessee at Liberty

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech

Troy at South Alabama

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.