Oregon Ducks
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 7 · 2026
34%
Big Ten title game
13%
Win the Big Ten
70%
Make the playoff
24%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.9
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-7 job: beat Nebraska.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Oregon's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Nebraska at Oregon
Your game. Beat Nebraska and your playoff odds are 72%; lose and they drop to 51%.
Oregon 91%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Penn State at Michigan
Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Penn State 53%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Florida at Texas
Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Texas 84%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Ohio State at Indiana
Ohio State visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.
Indiana 77%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Notre Dame at BYU
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and BYU winning protects it.
Notre Dame 87%
52 more games that don't move your needle
Utah at Colorado
Florida International at Jacksonville State
Delaware at Middle Tennessee
Kennesaw State at Missouri State
Western Kentucky at Sam Houston
East Carolina at UAB
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion
Memphis at Tulane
App State at Coastal Carolina
Auburn at Georgia
Mississippi State at LSU
Missouri at Ole Miss
Kentucky at Oklahoma
Alabama at Tennessee
Arkansas at Vanderbilt
Arizona State at Texas Tech
Cincinnati at West Virginia
Kansas at Kansas State
Oklahoma State at Houston
TCU at Baylor
Florida State at Miami
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Louisville at Syracuse
North Carolina at Duke
Pittsburgh at Boston College
Virginia at SMU
Wake Forest at California
Rutgers at Maryland
Northwestern at Michigan State
Washington at Purdue
Wisconsin at UCLA
Washington State at Oregon State
Fresno State at San Diego State
Colorado State at Texas State
Florida Atlantic at Army
Charlotte at Temple
Navy at UTSA
Tulsa at Rice
Kent State at South Florida
New Mexico at Hawai'i
Northern Illinois at Wyoming
San José State at UTEP
UNLV at Air Force
Ball State at Bowling Green
Massachusetts at Buffalo
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Akron at Miami (OH)
Arkansas State at Southern Miss
Georgia State at James Madison
Troy at Louisiana
Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.