Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 12 · 2026

39%

Big Ten title game

18%

Win the Big Ten

>99%

Make the playoff

30%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.2

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-12 job: beat Michigan State.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

If Oregon wins out: 52% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Your game

TBD

FRI NOV 20

Oregon at Michigan State

Your game. Beat Michigan State and your playoff odds are >99%; lose and they drop to 97%.

Oregon 94%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Texas Tech at Baylor

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Baylor winning protects it.

Texas Tech 91%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Ohio State at Nebraska

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Ohio State 91%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Indiana at Washington

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Washington visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 80%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Rutgers at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 93%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Georgia at South Carolina

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and South Carolina winning protects it.

Georgia 78%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Iowa at Illinois

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings.

Iowa 77%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Maryland at USC

Big Ten race: USC losing helps your spot in the standings.

USC 93%

57 more games that don't move your needle

Northwestern at Minnesota

Colorado at Cincinnati

Utah at TCU

Florida International at Kennesaw State

Ball State at Ohio

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Kent State

Akron at Massachusetts

Bowling Green at Toledo

Central Michigan at Buffalo

Rice at Temple

Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech

Clemson at Duke

Vanderbilt at Florida

Kentucky at Missouri

Texas A&M at Oklahoma

LSU at Tennessee

Arkansas at Texas

Arizona at Kansas State

BYU at Kansas

Houston at West Virginia

Iowa State at UCF

Oklahoma State at Arizona State

Virginia Tech at Miami

NC State at Florida State

North Carolina at Virginia

Pittsburgh at Louisville

Stanford at California

Syracuse at Boston College

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

UCLA at Michigan

Wisconsin at Purdue

Colorado State at Fresno State

Utah State at Oregon State

Washington State at Texas State

San Diego State at Boise State

Old Dominion at UConn

East Carolina at Army

Charlotte at Tulsa

South Florida at Florida Atlantic

Memphis at Navy

North Texas at Tulane

UTSA at UAB

Hawai'i at Nevada

New Mexico at Wyoming

UNLV at San José State

UTEP at Air Force

UL Monroe at App State

Coastal Carolina at Louisiana

Georgia Southern at Troy

Georgia State at Marshall

Delaware at New Mexico State

Missouri State at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Liberty

Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston

South Alabama at Southern Miss

SMU at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.