Jeremiah McClellan went through pregame warmups at Autzen on Friday night and then watched the whole thing from the sideline in a walking boot and on crutches. Oregon beat Portland State 84-0 without him, and on Monday Dan Lanning confirmed the diagnosis. McClellan broke his foot before the game, "kind of a weird deal," and "J-Mac's going to be down for a little bit of time," with no return date. Oregon's leading receiver through two games is out of the USC plan entirely.
What the Ducks got instead was freshman Messiah Hampton, who caught six passes for 71 yards and two touchdowns while Dante Moore praised his spring ball and fall camp work. Kendre Harrison scored the first touchdown of his career, and Oregon ran for 273 yards after averaging 104.5 on the ground against Boise State and Oklahoma State. All of that happened against a winless FCS team whose offense finished with two rushing yards, so it is depth being used rather than depth being proven. One outside film review of the game said pass-blocking error rates improved across the board but credited some of that to Portland State's weak edge pressure, and said the run blocking "continued to lack elegance."
That distinction is the whole week. Oregon is replacing seven players who were drafted in April, including leading receiver Malik Benson, first-round tight end Kenyon Sadiq and linemen Emmanuel Pregnon and Alex Harkey. Evan Stewart is back from missing all of 2025. Jamari Johnson has now missed two straight games, and offensive lineman Trent Ferguson is out for the season with a knee injury. That patched group's only meaningful stress test came two weeks ago at Oklahoma State, where Oregon allowed four sacks, rushed 30 times for 90 yards, and Lanning said flatly that the Ducks "didn't win the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball."
Oregon at USC, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Kickoff is at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, and the model gives Oregon a 42% chance to win it, a coin flip tilted slightly the wrong way, which is a strange thing to say about a team that has taken four straight in this series, two in a row in Los Angeles, and beat USC 42-27 in Eugene last November behind 257 passing yards and two touchdowns from Dante Moore. Lanning has beaten Lincoln Riley every time they have met. This is also the first Big Ten game for Oregon's new coordinators, Drew Mehringer on offense and Chris Hampton on defense, both promoted from co-coordinator after Will Stein left for Kentucky and Tosh Lupoi for Cal. Lanning kept the staff in-house rather than importing new systems, so the schemes should look familiar; what is untested is how the new play-callers handle a road conference opener. USC is 4-0 and ranked No. 12 in the AP poll to Oregon's No. 20. The history says Oregon travels fine here.
The history cannot tell you whether this offensive line keeps Moore upright. Moore said after Portland State that he spent the week fixing the pre-snap footwork alignment that came under scrutiny after the Oklahoma State loss, "so they can't call about that no more." A defense that can actually rush the passer is the only thing that tests that claim, and with McClellan gone Moore has one fewer target he trusts. Watch the first few third-and-longs. If Hampton and Stewart are separating and Moore is getting the ball out, this looks like the last four meetings. If the Coliseum crowd is watching Moore hold the ball and scramble, it looks like Stillwater.
Two smaller things worth tracking. Oregon went 2-for-2 on fourth down against Portland State after starting the season 0-for-6, which is the first positive mark on a failure Lanning already owned publicly; a short-handed skill group gets found out fastest in exactly those situations. And Oregon's defense recorded one sack against Portland State, credited to Aydin Breland, dominant run numbers, modest pass rush, against the weakest opponent on the schedule. If the offense is thinner than usual, the front has to shorten the game.
The stakes are real enough to say plainly. Win and Oregon's playoff odds sit near 32% with its Big Ten title-game chances around 27%; lose and those fall to roughly 16% and 5%. This is Oregon's fourth season under Lanning's established standard, 10-3, 12-2, 13-1 and 13-2, a Big Ten title in 2024 and quarterfinal-or-better trips in both of the last two playoffs, and losses like Oklahoma State do not fit it. There is also a wrinkle on the other sideline. USC's leading receiver through three games, Trent Mosley, is still unresolved for Saturday after a knee injury kept him out against Rutgers, with Riley calling the timeline "still a little inconclusive." Neither team may have its top target.
The rest of the Saturday board
Everything here runs through the Big Ten standings. Oregon's path to Indianapolis gets easier when the teams ahead of it lose conference games, and three of these are long shots worth checking the score on rather than rearranging your day for.
Northwestern at Indiana: root for Northwestern
This result carries a 5.0 percentage-point impact on Oregon's conference-title-game probability. A Northwestern win is a long shot, so treat it as a bonus rather than something to count on.
Friday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX. Northwestern wins this about 4% of the time, and No. 5 Indiana is the biggest obstacle between Oregon and a title-game berth. An Indiana loss would put Oregon's Big Ten championship-game odds near 19.0%, against 13.9% if the Hoosiers win, the largest single swing available to Oregon this week at five percentage points. It almost certainly will not happen. Check the score.
Illinois at Ohio State: root for Illinois
An Illinois win is a long shot, so treat it as a bonus rather than something to count on.
Saturday, noon ET on FOX. Illinois has about a 5% chance in Columbus, so this is a scoreboard glance, not a plan. If the Illini somehow pull it off, Oregon's title-game odds land near 17.7% instead of 13.9%, worth 3.7 points. Ohio State also happens to be Oregon's Week 10 road trip, so any dent in the Buckeyes now is a dent Oregon does not have to make itself in November.
Wisconsin at Penn State: root for Wisconsin
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET on Peacock. The most plausible of the three upsets at roughly 8%, and the smallest of the three payoffs, with 17.0% title-game odds for Oregon with a Wisconsin win, 13.9% without, a 3.2-point gain.
UCLA at Maryland: root for UCLA
This result carries a 1.5 percentage-point impact on Oregon's playoff probability.
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET on BTN. This is the one genuinely competitive game on the list, UCLA wins it about 43% of the time, and it is the only one that moves Oregon's playoff number rather than its conference number. A UCLA win puts Oregon's playoff odds at 23.5% versus 22.0% if Maryland holds serve.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.