The Mountain West race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Dakota State | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.8–2.2 | 69% | 41% | 4% |
 UNLV | 1–0 | 2–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 29% | 13% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 1–0 | 2–2 | 3.8–4.2 | 6% | 1% | <1% |
 Air Force | 1–1 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–1 | 1–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 7% | 3% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–2 | 1–3 | 3.0–5.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 55% | 32% | 4% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.6–4.4 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 0–4 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–3 | 1.3–6.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.