🏈 Fan Watch

Air Force Falcons

2–1 · 1–1 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 pregame guide

Air Force's defense has one more fourth quarter to answer for before Navy arrives

Air Force escaped Nevada 36-33 in double overtime after letting a 10-point lead go. Navy visits Saturday at 10 a.m. MT on CBS, and three Mountain West games move the math.

Read the rooting guide →
Air Force Academy band members and Gen. CQ Brown Jr. beside a bass drum at the 2024 Army game.
Gen. CQ Brown Jr. with Air Force Academy band members at West Point in 2024.
CreditPhoto creditChairman of the Joint Chiefs of StaffWikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Navy at Air Force
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CBS
Final
Navy
Final · Navy 9–14 Air ForceWish granted ✓
Air Force

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Air Force wanted
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MW+
Impact 1
Rooted for
UTEP
at
New Mexico
Final · UTEP 7–61 New MexicoWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.3-point title-game boost

New Mexico won instead, so Air Force did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if UTEP won15% with the other result5.3-point differenceAir Force MW title-game chance
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The CW Network
Impact 2
Rooted for
Wyoming
at
North Dakota State
Final · Wyoming 0–28 North Dakota StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.0-point title-game boost

North Dakota State won instead, so Air Force did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Wyoming won15% with the other result4-point differenceAir Force MW title-game chance
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…
MW+
Impact 3
San José State
at
Rooted for
Hawai'i
Final · San José State 20–16 Hawai'iWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

San José State won instead, so Air Force did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Hawai'i won14% with the other result2.1-point differenceAir Force MW title-game chance
52 other games had little impact
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · CBSSN
North Texas at Tulsa · ESPN
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Liberty at Delaware · CBSSN
Penn State at Northwestern · FOX
Memphis at Charlotte · ESPN+
Alabama at Mississippi State · ABC
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · ESPNU
UCF at Houston · ESPN2
West Virginia at Iowa State · TNT
Boston College at SMU · The CW Network
Notre Dame at North Carolina · ESPN
Stanford at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Syracuse at UConn · CBSSN
Michigan at Minnesota · FOX
Michigan State at Wisconsin · BTN
Vanderbilt at Georgia · SEC Network
Western Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Ball State · ESPN+
Florida at Missouri · ABC
Auburn at Tennessee · ESPN
California at UNLV · CBSSN
Louisville at NC State · ACC Network
Virginia at Florida State · ESPN2
Ohio State at Iowa · CBS
Akron at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Ohio at Kent State · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Georgia State · ESPN+
Marshall at James Madison · ESPNU
Maryland at Nebraska · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Purdue at Illinois · BTN
Oregon State at Colorado State · USA Network
Arkansas at Texas A&M · ESPN2
BYU at TCU · ESPN
UTSA at Rice · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
UL Monroe at South Alabama · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Colorado · FOX
Miami at Clemson · ABC
Washington at USC · NBC
Utah State at Boise State · CBSSN
Temple at South Florida · ESPNU
Army at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Indiana at Rutgers · BTN
Arkansas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Fresno State at Washington State · USA Network
Baylor at Arizona State · ESPN
Texas State at San Diego State · The CW Network
Cincinnati at Arizona · FOX
The rooting list was:Air Force, then UTEP, Wyoming, Hawai'i.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.