The Mountain West race
10 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Dakota State | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 62% | 36% | 3% |
 UNLV | 1–0 | 1–2 | 5.0–3.0 | 31% | 14% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–1 | 1–2 | 3.8–4.2 | 9% | 4% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–1 | 1–1 | 3.8–4.2 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.5–2.5 | 48% | 27% | 3% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.4–3.6 | 20% | 8% | <1% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.6–4.4 | 17% | 6% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.1–4.9 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 0–2 | 2.6–5.4 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.